| 卢 兰,户连荣,刘 凌,贺 娜,张知晓.CMIP6气候变化下我国八角的适生区预测[J].林业调查规划,2025,50(4):14-23 |
| CMIP6气候变化下我国八角的适生区预测 |
| Prediction of Suitable Habitat for Illicium verum in China underClimate Change Based on CMIP6 |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 八角 气候变化 最大熵模型 环境变量 适生区预测 |
| 英文关键词: Illicium verum climate change MaxEnt model environmental variables habitat suitability
prediction |
| 基金项目:2021年乡村振兴发展科技专项“八角主要有害生物持续控制配套综合技术研究与示范”(202004AH090011-38);云南省省级林
业推广项目“八角主要病虫害防控技术推广示范”([2022]ts 02号). |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为探讨影响八角分布的主导环境因子,揭示其在未来气候变化下的分布格局,以我国八角为
研究对象,以其在全球的159个有效分布记录和筛选出的9个环境变量为基础,用最大熵模型
(MaxEnt)和ArcGIS 10.5软件,对其在第6次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)不同的共享社会经济
路径(SSP)下,预测当前和2021—2040 年、2041—2060 年、2061—2080 年、2081—2100 年空间分布格
局的动态变化。MaxEnt评估ROC曲线显示,八角的训练值和测试值分别为0.985、0.989,表明模型预
测结果极好,可信度极高。在当前气候条件下,八角在我国的高适生区主要集中在广西、广东、福建、
台湾、海南、贵州东南部、四川东部、江西东南部及云南文山等地,总面积64×104 km2;较适生区主要集
中在云南、四川、海南、贵州、湖南、江西、湖北、浙江、安徽、山东等地,总面积134×104 km2。在未来气
候条件下,因受温度和降水的影响,八角在我国的适生区面积会略有变化,但变化程度并不大。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To explore the dominant environmental factors influencing the distribution of Illicium verum
and reveal its distribution pattern under future climate change, this study took Illicium verum in China as
the research object. Based on 159 global occurrence records and nine selected environmental variables,
the Maximum Entropy Model(MaxEnt) and ArcGIS 10.5 software were used to predict the current and
future spatial distribution patterns(2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) under different
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs) of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
(CMIP6). The ROC curve evaluation by MaxEnt showed that the training value and testing value of Illicium verum were 0.985 and 0.989, respectively, indicating excellent model performance and high reliability. Under current climatic conditions, the highly suitable areas for Illicium verumm in China are mainly
concentrated in Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Taiwan, Hainan, southeastern Guizhou, eastern Sichuan,
southeastern Jiangxi, and Wenshan in Yunnan, with a total area of 64×104 km2. Moderately suitable areas
are primarily distributed in Yunnan, Sichuan, Hainan, Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi, Hubei, Zhejiang,
Anhui, and Shandong, covering a total area of 134×104 km2. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable
habitat area for Illicium verum in China may experience slight changes due to temperature and precipitation
variations, but the overall shift is not significant. |
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