| 益争祝玛.基于MaxEnt模型的气候变化对中国乌桕潜在地理分布的影响预测[J].林业调查规划,2025,50(6):125-132 |
| 基于MaxEnt模型的气候变化对中国乌桕潜在地理分布的影响预测 |
| Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Potential Geographical Distributionof Triadica sebifera (L.) Small in China Using MaxEnt Model |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 乌桕 地理分布 最大熵模型(MaxEnt) 地理信息系统(GIS) 气候变化 适生区 |
| 英文关键词: Triadica sebifera (L. ) Small geographical distribution MaxEnt model Geographic Information
System (GIS) climate change suitable habitat |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 388 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为评估气候变化对中国乌桕潜在地理分布的影响,基于乌桕分布点位数据和19 个生物气候变量,采用MaxEnt 模型结合GIS 技术,预测当前及未来气候情景下乌桕在中国的潜在分布。模型评估
显示较高准确性(AUC=0.924),降水量和温度是影响乌桕分布的主要环境因子,累积贡献率达87.3%。预测表明,乌桕的适生区域在不同气候变化情景下呈显著变化。乌桕在中国的潜在适生区面积约221.04×104 km2,主要集中在华东及中部地区,包括江苏、安徽、湖北、浙江、江西、湖南、广西、广东、重庆和福建等省份。面对未来气候变化,预计高适生区将呈先减少后增加趋势,中适生区持续扩大,低适生区稳定增长。质心迁移将分别在SSP1-2.6 和SSP5-8.5 情景下向西北和东南方向进行。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To assess the impact of climate change on the potential geographical distribution of Triadica sebifera
(L.) Small in China, the MaxEnt model combined with GIS technology was used to predict its potential
distribution under current and future climate scenarios, based on species occurrence records and
19 bioclimatic variables. Model evaluation indicated high predictive accuracy(AUC=0.924). Precipitation
and temperature were identified as the dominant environmental factors influencing the distribution of
of Triadica sebifera (L.) Small, with a cumulative contribution rate of 87.3%. Predictions suggest that
the suitable habitat area for of Triadica sebifera (L.) Small will change significantly under different climate
change scenarios. The current potential suitable area in China is approximately 221.04×104 km2,
primarily concentrated in eastern and central regions, including Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Fujian. Facing future climate change, the highly
suitable habitat area is projected to decrease initially and then increase, the moderately suitable area is
expected to expand continuously, while the lowly suitable area shows steady growth. The centroid of the
suitable habitat is predicted to shift northwestward under the SSP1-2.6 scenario and southeastward under
the SSP5-8.5 scenario. |
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