| 徐乔芬,陈思宇,王 艳.基于 MaxEnt 模型的油茶在云南省适生区分布预测[J].林业调查规划,2026,51(2):36-43 |
| 基于 MaxEnt 模型的油茶在云南省适生区分布预测 |
| Prediction of Suitable Habitat Distribution for Camellia oleifera inYunnan Province Based on MaxEnt Model |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 油茶 适生区分布 环境变量 MaxEnt 模型 云南省 |
| 英文关键词: Camellia oleifera suitable habitat distribution environmental variable MaxEnt model Yunnan Province |
| 基金项目:红河流域干热河谷造林树种筛选及空间配置研究项目(YK2025611104). |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于141个油茶分布点,结合气候、土壤和地形38个环境变量数据,运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和ArcGIS软件模拟油茶在云南省的潜在适生区分布及其变化。结果表明,MaxEnt 模型重复10次后平均训练集AUC值为0.898,标准差为0.020,模型模拟预测结果良好,具有较高的稳定性;影响油茶潜在适生区分布的主导环境因子为年均温、年气温变化范围、坡度和碳酸盐或石灰含量,最适年均温为21.5~22.5℃;油茶在云南省潜在适生区均有分布,适生区面积271 459.11 km2,占全省面积的70.84%,高、中、低适生区面积分别为31 876.27、65 711.61、173 871.24 km2,分别占比8.32%、17.15%、45.38%。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the data of 141 distribution points of Camellia oleifera combined with 38 environmental variables of climate, soil and topography, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and ArcGIS software were used to simulate the distribution and change of potential suitable habitats of C.oleifera in Yunnan. The results showed that the average AUC value of the training set was 0.898 and the standard deviation was 0.020 after 10 replicates of the MaxEnt model, and the model simulation prediction results were good and had high stability. The dominant environmental factors influencing the distribution of potential suitable habitats were identified as annual mean temperature, annual temperature range, slope, and carbonate or lime content. The most suitable annual average temperature was 21.5-22.5℃. Potential suitable habitats for C.oleiferawere distributed across Yunnan Province, with a total suitable area of 271 459.11 km2, accounting for 70.84% of the province′s area. The areas of high, moderate, and low suitability are 31 876.27, 65 711.61, and 173 871.24 km2, representing 8.32%, 17.15%, and 45.38% of the province′s area, respectively. |
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