| 周 宇,雷 林,杨 宸,路纪芳,任雪敏,周菁婧.基于MaxEnt模型的松材线虫在贵州省潜在适生区预测[J].林业调查规划,2026,51(3):141-147 |
| 基于MaxEnt模型的松材线虫在贵州省潜在适生区预测 |
| Prediction of Potential Distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in Guizhou Province Based on MaxEnt Model |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 松材线虫 MaxEnt模型 ArcGIS 潜在适生区 环境因子 贵州 |
| 英文关键词: Bursaphelenchus xylophilus MaxEnt model ArcGIS potential suitable area environmental factor Guizhou Province |
| 基金项目:贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合支撑〔2023〕一般258);贵州省林业科研项目(黔林科合〔2023〕18号);贵州省林业局林业优秀青年人才培养专项资金项目(黔林科合J字〔2025〕08号). |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 松材线虫病在我国是一种极具毁灭性的检疫性森林病害,严重威胁森林资源和生态环境。为探究当前气候条件下松材线虫在贵州省的分布特征,基于MaxEnt模型预测了松材线虫的潜在地理分布。 结果显示,MaxEnt模型的AUC平均值为0.976,预测结果具有较高的准确性;松材线虫的适生区主要分布在贵州省中北部、东北部和东南部地区;松材线虫的适生区分布主要受温度影响,关键环境变量为温度变化方差和年温度变化范围,在未来气候条件下松材线虫可能会扩大分布范围,进而呈现贵州中部、东部全面扩张的分布格局。建议持续开展松材线虫病疫木除治和疫情监测,加快培育抗病松种,调整林分结构,提升森林生态系统稳定性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, classified as a significant phytosanitary threat in China, poses a severe risk to forest resources and the ecological environment. To investigate the distribution characteristics of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in Guizhou Province under current climatic conditions, this study employed the MaxEnt model to predict its potential geographical distribution. The results showed that the AUC value predicated by the MaxEnt model was 0.976, which indicated a very high degree of accuracy. The suitable areas of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus was mainly distributed in north-central, north-eastern and south-eastern parts of Guizhou Province. These suitable areas of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus was primarily affected by temperature, the key environment variables were the seasonal variation of temperature and the range of annual temperature variation. Under future climatic conditions, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus may continue to expand its range, resulting in a comprehensive expansion pattern in central and eastern of Guizhou. This paper suggests to continuously carry out the removal of infected trees and monitoring of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus disease, accelerate the cultivation of disease-resistant pine species, adjust forest stand structure, and enhance the stability of forest ecosystems. |
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