文章摘要
刘 珊,师春娟,延相东,刘昕岑,王 齐.基于耦合PLUS、InVEST模型的云南省边境县土地利用演变及碳储量评估[J].林业调查规划,2026,51(4):85-95
基于耦合PLUS、InVEST模型的云南省边境县土地利用演变及碳储量评估
Coupling PLUS and InVEST Models for Land Use Evolution and Carbon Storage Assessment in Border Counties of Yunnan Province
  
DOI：
中文关键词: PLUS模型  InVEST模型  土地利用演变  碳储量评估  多情景模拟  云南省边境县
英文关键词: PLUS model  InVEST model  land use evolution  carbon storage assessment  multi-scenario simulation  border counties in Yunnan Province
基金项目:云南省教育厅项目(2023J1618).
作者单位
刘 珊 云南林业职业技术学院 园林园艺学院,云南 昆明 650224 
师春娟 云南林业职业技术学院 园林园艺学院,云南 昆明 650224 
延相东 云南师范大学 艺术学院,云南 昆明 650500 
刘昕岑 西南林业大学 园林学院,云南 昆明 650224 
王 齐 云南林业职业技术学院 园林园艺学院,云南 昆明 650224 
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中文摘要:
      云南省边境地区作为生态敏感区与跨境经济走廊的交叠地带,其土地利用变化对区域碳循环的影响机制具有重要研究价值。因此,利用PLUS和InVEST模型构建多情景土地利用变化动态模拟框架,并量化不同地类转换对碳储量的影响。结果表明,林地面积显著增加4 493.43 km2,耕地和灌木地分别减少2 223.45 km2和2 433.96 km2,建设用地扩张184.05 km2;碳储量总体增加1.311×108 t,其中林地贡献率达54.99%,而耕地和灌木地碳储量分别下降19.32%和24.92%;空间上,碳储量高值区集中于滇西南,低值区分布于西北部;多情景模拟显示,2030年生态保育情景碳储量最高(1.328 01×109 t),城镇发展情景最低(1.312 41×109 t)。藉此认为,实施生态与耕地保护策略,控制建设用地向林地、耕地的转变,有利于减少边境县碳储量的流失。
英文摘要:
      As an overlapping zone between ecologically sensitive areas and cross-border economic corridors, the impact mechanism of land use change on regional carbon cycling in the border areas of Yunnan Province has important research value. A dynamic simulation framework for multi-scenario land use change was constructed using PLUS and InVEST models, and the impact of different land use conversions on carbon storage was quantified. The results showed that forest land area increased significantly by 4 493.43 km2, while cultivated land and shrubland decreased by 2 223.45 km2 and 2 433.96 km2, respectively, and construction land expanded by 184.05 km2. The overall carbon storage increased by 1.311×108 t, with forest land contributing 54.99%, while cultivated land and shrubland carbon storage decreased by 19.32% and 24.92%, respectively. Spatially, high-value carbon storage areas were concentrated in southwestern Yunnan, while low-value areas distributed in the northwest. Multi-scenario simulations showed that the ecological conservation scenario yielded the highest carbon storage (1.328 01×109 t) by 2030, whereas the urban development scenario resulted in the lowest (1.312 41×109 t). Implementing ecological and farmland protection strategies, controlling the conversion of construction land to forest and farmland, was conducive to reducing the loss of carbon storage in border counties.
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